Market correction

Equities were down Thursday and Friday, and so were the Yankees, as they dropped two straight (not including the completion of the suspended game) against the Royals and the Orioles. Market activity was primarily driven by the overvaluation of performances against subprime teams like the Devil Rays, and credit concerns regarding Kei Igawa's huge contract despite his apparent inability to do anything but throw 89-mph thigh-high fastballs right down the middle of the plate.

Alex Rodriguez is sitting on 499 home runs on the same day that Barry Bonds is one short of tying Hank Aaron's 755. There has been a lot of discussion about A-Rod and Bonds approaching these significant power milestones simultaneously, as most everyone outside of San Francisco views Bonds as a dirty cheater and A-Rod as a purer player. My position on Bonds has been and always will be that the guy was an extraordinarily good hitter before he started taking steroids, and while he may not "deserve" the all-time record, it's really Major League Baseball's fault for not instituting an illegal substance-testing policy when every other major sport in America had one. Ever since the MLB started testing players, Bonds has not been suspended, so really, what can you do?

Also, I don't take it for granted, as many sportswriters do, that A-Rod will hit 800 home runs in his career and break Bonds's record. Rodriguez turned 32 yesterday, inching closer to that mid-thirties mark where players inevitably begin to decline. A-Rod will have to remain healthy and really rake over the next few seasons in order to have a shot at the record.

Roger Clemens takes the mound for the Yankees today, and he'll be followed by Rambo Wang on Sunday to complete the three-game series against the O's. The Yanks will probably win both of these games. I'll maintain my initial post-All-Star forecast for the Yankees to win 90 games this season, but I'll lower the standard deviation to 3.5 games and reitirate that they probably will not make the playoffs.

The Devil Rays are really bad

So yeah, the Yankees just outscored the Devil Rays 45-12 in the last three games of their four-game series. The bottom five team ERA's in the MLB now stand as follows:

26. Cinicinnati Reds: 4.81
27. St. Louis Cardinals: 4.83
28. Philadelphia Phillies: 4.87
29. Texas Rangers: 4.95
30. Tampa Bay Suck-Asses: 5.98

Wow. They give up over a run per game more than the next worst pitching team in the league. Their bullpen is essentially AAA quality, seeing as though Shawn Camp (who?) and Brian Stokes (WHO?!) lead the team in appearances. The worst bullpen in baseball facing what is probably the best starting lineup in baseball three times in under 28 hours results in, well, bloodshed. With one out in the sixth inning, the Yankees leading 16-3, and Alex Rodriguez up against Shawn Camp, who had already surrendered a home run and two doubles in the inning, I almost expected A-Rod to step out of the box, gaze into the owner's box, and see this:


Naturally, everyone in Yankee-land is on top of the world right now, but make no mistake, this Bronx beatdown should mostly be attributed to the level of competition. That being said, this series was a great confidence booster to guys like Robbie Cano, who fell just a double short of the cycle today and went 11 for 18 in the series, raising his BA from .275 to .291.

I believe there are two main factors explaining Cano's drop-off this year. First of all, there is the widely agreed-upon theory that his 2006 BABIP was far too high considering his lack of speed; he finished the season at .363, higher than the career BABIP's of guys like Ichiro Suzuki (.356) or Derek Jeter (.360). So far this season, his BABIP stands at .321.

While Cano has stood out this year as one of the big under-achievers on the team, the thing that really sets him apart from the rest of the club is that he is the only starter who is essentially a guess-hitter (A-Rod being the next closest). That being said, I think the dip in Cano's numbers this season can also be attributed to, ironically, his attempt to become a more patient hitter. Last season, he saw 3.22 pitches per plate appearance, but this year he's up to 3.43. While his isolated patience has accordingly increased from .023 in 2006 to .039, the rest of his numbers have suffered. SWING AWAY, ROBBIE!

Yankees down Jays 6-4

Even though Kei Igawa issued four walks and gave up two home runs, he managed to give the Yankees five acceptable innings, and A-Rod hit his billionth home run of the season. Mariano Rivera notched his third save in as many games. Mo has only give up five runs since he gave up four to the Red Sox on April 27th, lowering his ERA from 12.15 to 3.41 over that stretch. Mo regaining his form seems to have brought a sense of normalcy to the season. I mean, when he gave up a walk-off home run to Marco Scutaro on April 15th, many of my fundamental perceptions of reality were called into question, and I spent weeks wandering the streets in an existential haze.

Satan Starting from the Touch of Scutaro's Spear

It's also great to see Andy Phillips getting a shot at playing every day at first and succeeding. I believe that his stigma as a "quadruple-A" player is unwarranted. I simply don't see how a player who has torn up AAA the way he has shouldn't have the ability to be an above-average major league hitter. If he builds up some confidence, he is capable of a solid .275/.350/.475.

Yankees take last two games in Tampa; Wang in your face

The Yankee offense offset early-inning struggles from Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina to beat the Devil Rays 6-4 on Saturday and 7-6 this afternoon. Bobby Abreu homered and had 5 RBI's yesterday, while Jeter led the way today with a two-run shot. Also, in his 52nd at-bat of 2007, Yankee backup catcher Wil Nieves, whose mighty presence at the plate sends chills down the spine of even the league's most seasoned pitchers, notched his first extra-base hit of the season, boosting his ISO to an intimidating .019. Back before I finally snapped during a YES broadcast and took an axe to my TV set to forever purge my living room of Michael Kay's nefarious aural presence, it made me wretch to constantly hear his insistence that Wil Nieves is "the nicest guy in the world". This isn't the Special Olympics, you dolt, this is Major League Baseball. If I were the manager of the Yankees, my first move would be to invest in a very lifelike Wil Nieves scarecrow that I could send up to the plate while the human version lay safely chloroformed in the clubhouse.

The Yankees are now over .500.

Chien-Ming Wang is the coolest pitcher in the majors. Watching him induce out after out on the ground is just hilarious. I was looking at his statistics from last season, in which he was the runner-up in Cy Young voting. His startlingly low 76 strikeouts in 218 innings made me wonder what was the last time anyone had a more successful season than Wang's 2006 campaign while striking out less batters. So, I ran an Access query using the handy (and free) Lahman Baseball Database, and found out that the most recent pitcher to throw over 218 innings, strike out less than 76 batters, and have an ERA under Wang's 3.63 was Andy Hawkins with the Padres in 1985, 22 seasons ago. Coincidentally, Hawkins was a Yankee later in his career and became the only pitcher in franchise history to lose a game in which he threw a no-hitter, suffering a 4-0 loss at Comiskey Park. Go figure.

The greatest thing about Chien-Ming Wang, though, is that he is thoroughly unflappable. Even when things aren't going his way, he never loses focus on the mound, which is probably a by-product of his gradual desensitization to the runs of bad luck that a pitcher of his style will inevitably encounter. Another challenge that Wang has faced and will probably continue to face throughout his career is the recurring blister that develops on the middle finger of his throwing hand. For many pitchers, a little finger blister means a trip to the DL, but Wang pitches through it even when his fingernail begins to split and bleed. What a badass.

Yankees run into Kazmir, fall 6-4

Scott Kazmir is a very good, young pitcher. The Yankees were able to get his pitch count up by working a lot of deep counts, forcing him out of the game after six innings and 117 pitches. They had three innings to feast on the supple meat of the hopelessly terrible Devil Ray bullpen, but came up a bit short despite back-to-back jacks from Jorgey and Godzirra.

Clemens looked a bit flat and took the loss. After the game, Torre predictably blubbered about how "These last two games, he has given us so much more than we could've ever expected." Really, Joe? I don't know what you expected for a pro-rated $28 million, but I expected the Rocket to throw a no-hitter every night while riding around the diamond on a unicycle and simultaneously juggling flaming torches and knives. Well, maybe not, but to imply that he's performing above expectations when his ERA is 4.20 is unreasonable.

Speaking of Joe, is he really going to bat Melky out of the two-hole indefinitely? It's such nonsense. I love the Melkster as much as any other Yankee fan, and pointing out his shortcomings sort of feels like hitting a puppy dog, but the man has an OBP of .331. The optimal run-producing top of the order at this point would probably be Abreu-Jeter-ARod-Posada-Matsui, but as long as Torre's at the helm, we're going to see a decrepid Damon and a still-developing Melky take at-bats away from the more capable hitters.

Boras! Versus... Cashman! FIGHT!

According to today's Daily News, the Yankees have told A-Rod that he either signs an extension or seeks employment elsewhere. This is the smartest thing that they could have done. As I mentioned yesterday, the Yankees are the only team that can afford A-Rod, and it is now apparent that they know it. The Yankees are pulling a William Vickrey-esque game theory strategy by simply trying to avoid a sealed-bid auction for A-Rod. They're obviously willing to pay as much as any other team in baseball could offer (so basically, what the Angels could offer), but no more. Bravo, Brian Cashman, for making a stand against Scott Boras and all of his wacky antics.

Yankees defeat Devil Rays 7-3, and a Bobby Abreu discussion

The Yanks won last night as Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and Bobby Abreu all homered. Andy Pettitte, who was coming off two straight horrendous performances that inflated his ERA from 3.24 to 4.25, was a little shaky but he got the win.

Let's talk about Bobby Abreu, whose offensive performance is now commonly believed to be the deciding factor in the team's ability to score runs. In the five seasons prior to 2007, Abreu never ended a year with an OBP under .405 or a SLG under .462. He also averaged over 30 steals per season at a reasonable 79% success rate. Does that sound like a declining player to you? Me neither.

For whatever reason, he had a startlingly bad first half by his standards, hitting .276/.356/.390. A 102 adjusted OPS (OPS+) simply isn't Bobby Abreu. If you consider him to be the same player he's been over the previously mentioned past five years, that OPS+ would fall over 2.5 standard deviations away from the mean were it to remain steady for the remainder of his 2007 campaign.

So is this season's Bobby Abreu the sensational five-tool player he's been for nearly ten years, or is it the 2003 Bernie Williams version? Is he merely slumping or is he beginning to decline?

Let's take a look at his BABIP over the course of his career:


That wasn't Bobby Abreu's BABIP over the course of his career. That was duck rape, a fascinating topic in itself. Here is Bobby Abreu's BABIP over the course of his career, courtesy of fangraphs.com:


His 2007 BABIP is slightly out of alignment, but not enough to explain how bad he's been this year. Another relevant peripheral statistic in analyzing Bobby Abreu's drop-off is pitches seen per plate appearance. Bobby Abreu has been an on-base monster over the course of his career because of his superb batter's eye and willingness to work the count. If he loses those abilities, he loses much of his effectiveness. Here is a Bobby Abreu season-by-season NP/PA chart (data unavailable before 1999):


There's a concerning sharp drop-off from his previous five seasons, but he's still above his 1999 and 2001 NP/PA. Lastly, let's take a look at his GB/FB/LD distribution, again thanks to fangraphs.com:


Again, there is a troubling decline in line drives this season, but he's still been successful with such peripherals in other seasons (in this case, 2004).

Taking all of this data and mallard mating habits into consideration, I think it's pretty clear what's going on with Bobby Abreu, and the answer to our original question (slump or decline?) falls between the two extremes. After hitting 15HR last season, the lowest full season total of his career, Bobby Abreu is doing the whole "trying too hard because of the pressure in New York" thing. He's trying to hit home runs when he should be doing what he does best, just getting on base. This is resulting in him seeing less pitches per plate appearance and hitting more fly balls than he should be. It is obvious that Abreu no longer has 30HR power, but there's no reason for him not to get on base over 40% of the time.

My prediction is that he'll make the appropriate adjustments in his approach to hitting in the second half of the season. A batter of his caliber simply has to be excellent at making such adjustments. Provided that he avoids injury in the second half, I'm forecasting a final OPS+ of 113 with a standard deviation of 6.

The A-Rod opt-out

There appears to be a consensus in baseball that if the Yankees do not offer Alex Rodriguez a contract extension, he will opt out of the remaining three years of his $252 million, ten-year megacontract, foregoing the $81 million he is owed in that period.

I'm not so sure. Consider the three teams with the highest payrolls in baseball after the Yankees. At #2, the Red Sox ($143 million) obviously wouldn't sign him. Wright and Reyes aren't going anywhere, so that rules out the Mets ($115 million) at #3. Then there's the #4 Angels ($109 million). They're obviously the most likely candidate to go after A-Rod, but we're talking about a team that already has big money invested in Gary Matthews and Garret Anderson. I think their bid for A-Rod would max out around five years and $120 million.

That being said, Scott Boras could potentially use his dark magic to convince the Yankees that there is indeed a long-term, $30+ million-a-year market for A-Rod. Boras puts the fear of God into a lot of front offices, and we may very well see him wringing out a $190 million six-year deal from the Yankees' urine-soaked trousers.

Whatever the case, A-Rod will almost undoubtedly be a Yankee next year and most likely for the remainder of his career. I'm excited.

The Yankee Trough

Hi, my name is Jordan Meisner, and I've decided to start a Yankee web log. I've done so largely because the Yankees are having their first poor regular season in quite some time and most fans are unnecessarily panicking. Fears have been quelled somewhat by the fact that the team is only one game below .500 at the All-Star break, but on May 29th their 21-29 record and Boston's 14.5 game division lead had turned nearly all Yankee fans into a crazed, bloodthirsty mob ready to burn Brian Cashman, Bobby Abreu, Robinson Cano and the like at a stake, offering their charred flesh as a sacrificial gift to the wrathful hamstring gods.

I think the 2007 Yankees are a good team -- as good as any team they've fielded this decade, really. I also believe that Brian Cashman has the franchise headed in a very positive direction. The team has simply underperformed in the first half. I'm unscientifically forecasting a 47 win second-half (resulting in a 90-72 final record) with a five win standard deviation. In other words, I think it is very unlikely that the Yankees will finish the season under .500, but they probably won't make the playoffs, either.

This is just a trough. It's still a great time to be a Yankee fan. The team's future is brighter than most think and the new Stadium should be awesome.