Hm, on second thought, maybe it's kind of a funny nickname.
April 8, 2008
There's got to be a better nickname
MLB.com just published an article entitled, "Yankees' 'Three Amigos' handling pressure", subtitled, "Young Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain counted on in Bronx". There's got to be a better nickname for the trio than Three Amigos, which is the apparently the term that Phil Hughes himself uses. If this inane phrase becomes widely adopted by the media and I have to hear it for five years, I will lose my mind.
Hitting starts off slow, and I ramble about Igawa
The Yankees are 4-3 through seven games despite having scored only 23 runs so far this season, which is good for 25th in the MLB in terms of runs per game. It's funny to see the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Tigers all among the bottom seven teams in the league in that category, which obviously won't be the case in a few months.
With the exception of Ian Kennedy, the Yankees rotation has looked solid. Expect a few bumps along the road for Kennedy, whose dismal 2.1 inning showing against the Devil Rays a few days ago was only the fourth major league start of his career. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy is the one who Joba replaces in the rotation after a couple months, rather than Mussina as most people thought would be the case. If Kennedy really blows up, then it might even be Kei Igawa filling in for a while. Though Kennedy tore up every league he faced during his one-year stint in the minors, the bottom line is he has been rushed to the MLB.
-----
I have been thinking recently about the general Yankee fan's perception of Kei Igawa as an unmitigated disaster. While yes, he has been terrible, I think most people don't consider all the factors at hand when signing an international player.
One interesting characteristic of baseball is that there are many incredibly promising prospects who Just Can't Cut It at the major league level. There are some players that tear up the minor leagues, but when they get the call-up, their numbers all of a sudden dip to replacement level. This phenomenon is not limited to pitchers -- we all remember Andy Phillips, for example.
Anyway, I relate this idea to the signing of Kei Igawa because when the Yankees signed Igawa, they were essentially signing a stellar prospect. The Japanese leagues are probably AAA quality, and he had GREAT numbers there, just as someone like Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Ian Kennedy would have.
The point is, you can project numbers from league to league based on historical conversions and player comparisons and probably arrive at a reasonable expected value for prospects, but you're going to see some variance. Some prospects' abilities will translate to the majors, some will not.
You might say, "BUT JORDAN THE YANKEES PAID KEI IGAWA A BILLION DOLLARS AND YOU'RE SAYING HE'S A PROSPECT LOL". Yeah, well, that was their perception of his fair market value, and I think they paid about the right amount, to be honest. They bid $26m for Igawa and signed him to a $20m, 5-year contract, right? Using the 40% marginal luxury tax, that's a $26m untaxable bid that we can amortize over the life of his contract and $28m in salary and taxes, which comes to $10.8m a year. Discount that value by the 40% marginal tax rate, and that's equivalent to the Yankees paying $7.7m a year for five years for a player on the MLB free agent market.
So I pose the following question to the Cashman-bashers: were a high-level pitching prospect to be on the open market, would you pay $7.7m a year for him? For example, if Ian Kennedy were somehow on the market, would you give him that kind of money? It's tough to say, because despite his incredible numbers in lesser leagues, we're not very sure at this point as to what kind of major league career he's going to have. But when you consider that very mediocre pitchers like Ted Lilly go for $11m a year in this market, $7.7m a year almost seems cheap for a promising prospect.
I would also argue that differing risk premia among major league teams factor into international signings. As I mentioned before, I think most sabermatricians would agree that it is possible to produce a reasonable estimate of how players coming from other leagues will perform in the majors, but there is much more uncertainty in this projection than, say, projecting an NL pitcher's numbers to the AL. Therefore, assuming the markets for baseball players are rational, the monetary utility of a player on the open market, which should be correlated to their expected added win shares, must be discounted at a greater rate for prospect-types (i.e., international players) to account for the additional risk. The Yankees, however, most certainly have less risk aversion than other MLB teams due to their deep pockets; if a high-risk, high-reward player doesn't work out, they have no problem just eating the salary. For example, were Kei Igawa's projected numbers applied to an MLB free agent, let's say most teams would pay in the range of 10-11m a year for his services. When you consider the uncertainty in the estimates, however, the mean value decreases and the range widens when you take into account differing risk preferences among MLB front offices. Therefore, the bids on Kei Igawa might range from 4-7m a year when taking into account this volatility.
The bottom line is that baseball, like the stock market, is a tough thing to predict. All you can do is make the most informed investment decisions possible and live with them. Kei Igawa happened to be a bust, but I don't think Yankee fans should be too upset with Brian Cashman about his signing.
With the exception of Ian Kennedy, the Yankees rotation has looked solid. Expect a few bumps along the road for Kennedy, whose dismal 2.1 inning showing against the Devil Rays a few days ago was only the fourth major league start of his career. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy is the one who Joba replaces in the rotation after a couple months, rather than Mussina as most people thought would be the case. If Kennedy really blows up, then it might even be Kei Igawa filling in for a while. Though Kennedy tore up every league he faced during his one-year stint in the minors, the bottom line is he has been rushed to the MLB.
-----
I have been thinking recently about the general Yankee fan's perception of Kei Igawa as an unmitigated disaster. While yes, he has been terrible, I think most people don't consider all the factors at hand when signing an international player.
One interesting characteristic of baseball is that there are many incredibly promising prospects who Just Can't Cut It at the major league level. There are some players that tear up the minor leagues, but when they get the call-up, their numbers all of a sudden dip to replacement level. This phenomenon is not limited to pitchers -- we all remember Andy Phillips, for example.
Anyway, I relate this idea to the signing of Kei Igawa because when the Yankees signed Igawa, they were essentially signing a stellar prospect. The Japanese leagues are probably AAA quality, and he had GREAT numbers there, just as someone like Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Ian Kennedy would have.
The point is, you can project numbers from league to league based on historical conversions and player comparisons and probably arrive at a reasonable expected value for prospects, but you're going to see some variance. Some prospects' abilities will translate to the majors, some will not.
You might say, "BUT JORDAN THE YANKEES PAID KEI IGAWA A BILLION DOLLARS AND YOU'RE SAYING HE'S A PROSPECT LOL". Yeah, well, that was their perception of his fair market value, and I think they paid about the right amount, to be honest. They bid $26m for Igawa and signed him to a $20m, 5-year contract, right? Using the 40% marginal luxury tax, that's a $26m untaxable bid that we can amortize over the life of his contract and $28m in salary and taxes, which comes to $10.8m a year. Discount that value by the 40% marginal tax rate, and that's equivalent to the Yankees paying $7.7m a year for five years for a player on the MLB free agent market.
So I pose the following question to the Cashman-bashers: were a high-level pitching prospect to be on the open market, would you pay $7.7m a year for him? For example, if Ian Kennedy were somehow on the market, would you give him that kind of money? It's tough to say, because despite his incredible numbers in lesser leagues, we're not very sure at this point as to what kind of major league career he's going to have. But when you consider that very mediocre pitchers like Ted Lilly go for $11m a year in this market, $7.7m a year almost seems cheap for a promising prospect.
I would also argue that differing risk premia among major league teams factor into international signings. As I mentioned before, I think most sabermatricians would agree that it is possible to produce a reasonable estimate of how players coming from other leagues will perform in the majors, but there is much more uncertainty in this projection than, say, projecting an NL pitcher's numbers to the AL. Therefore, assuming the markets for baseball players are rational, the monetary utility of a player on the open market, which should be correlated to their expected added win shares, must be discounted at a greater rate for prospect-types (i.e., international players) to account for the additional risk. The Yankees, however, most certainly have less risk aversion than other MLB teams due to their deep pockets; if a high-risk, high-reward player doesn't work out, they have no problem just eating the salary. For example, were Kei Igawa's projected numbers applied to an MLB free agent, let's say most teams would pay in the range of 10-11m a year for his services. When you consider the uncertainty in the estimates, however, the mean value decreases and the range widens when you take into account differing risk preferences among MLB front offices. Therefore, the bids on Kei Igawa might range from 4-7m a year when taking into account this volatility.
The bottom line is that baseball, like the stock market, is a tough thing to predict. All you can do is make the most informed investment decisions possible and live with them. Kei Igawa happened to be a bust, but I don't think Yankee fans should be too upset with Brian Cashman about his signing.
February 22, 2008
Rumblings
Reports seem to indicate that a lot of guys have showed up to spring training in significantly better shape than last year, including Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Joba Chamberlain, and Phil Hughes.
My big prediction for the year relates to offense. Don't be surprised if the Yankee offense has a season for the ages in 2008, and by that I mean 1000 runs. Expect significant bouncebacks from Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, who are in their contract years. For those of you who aren't familiar with that term (it's thrown around by sportswriters quite a bit), it means that a player is in the final year of their current contract, and it is often used to allude to the idea that players will try harder and perform better when the size of their next contract is in the balance. Also, look for a resurgence from Johnny Damon, who was clearly embarrassed by his weak .270/.351/.396 line last year. I'd say he'll wind up at around .300/.370/.450 this year if he stays healthy.
The only position player I'm really worried about is Melky Cabrera. He's got to show something this year considering his 2007 numbers were worse than his 2006 numbers, which were already only average for his position. I'm less worried about Hideki Matsui, who despite his failing knees will probably be good for .290/.380/.480 this year. After all, he must display the golden dragon heart power and fight for the undying glory of his homeland, drawing from the eternal underworld spring fountain of his ancestors.
My big prediction for the year relates to offense. Don't be surprised if the Yankee offense has a season for the ages in 2008, and by that I mean 1000 runs. Expect significant bouncebacks from Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, who are in their contract years. For those of you who aren't familiar with that term (it's thrown around by sportswriters quite a bit), it means that a player is in the final year of their current contract, and it is often used to allude to the idea that players will try harder and perform better when the size of their next contract is in the balance. Also, look for a resurgence from Johnny Damon, who was clearly embarrassed by his weak .270/.351/.396 line last year. I'd say he'll wind up at around .300/.370/.450 this year if he stays healthy.
The only position player I'm really worried about is Melky Cabrera. He's got to show something this year considering his 2007 numbers were worse than his 2006 numbers, which were already only average for his position. I'm less worried about Hideki Matsui, who despite his failing knees will probably be good for .290/.380/.480 this year. After all, he must display the golden dragon heart power and fight for the undying glory of his homeland, drawing from the eternal underworld spring fountain of his ancestors.
January 7, 2008
Blah blah blah, just look at the numbers
(click to view full image)
I don't think we need 60 Minutes or a congressional inquiry to draw our conclusions here, but maybe that's just me.
October 24, 2007
Post-season tornado of absurdity and media idiocy
Yeah, I stopped updating this blog for a while. Big whoop, wanna fight about it?
This October is pure lunacy. I mean, we've got a friggin' Rockies-Red Sox World Series, a matchup that would have garnered nothing more than a, "What are you, retarded?" look were it forecasted just a few years ago, Joe Torre figuratively flipping the Yankees the bird and going out like a real a-hole, Dane Cook screaming at me from rapidly changing camera angles when I'm just trying to relax and watch some baseball, and the seventh damn year in a row the Yankees have failed to win a World Series title despite being by far the best team in baseball over that stretch.
I have to say, the media coverage of the Joe Torre debacle has been the most infuriating element of this hurricane of insanity. It's as if every beat writer has completely lost their mind. Maybe they're just bewitched. Who knows? Maybe Joe Torre is a witch. Regardless of whether he's a witch or not, here are a few things I know about Joe Torre:
1) He is a horrible baseball tactician. Notice I've initially stopped short of saying the word "manager", because whenever anyone dares to call him a bad manager, they are subjected to an avalanche of absurd claims along the lines of, "BUT HE MANAGES THE PERSONALITIES OF HIS PLAYERS SO WELL!!!!!11111". Let's refute this statement with two important points:
2) He is outrageously overpaid. Consider that this season, Joe was paid $7.5 million, MORE THAN TWICE WHAT THE NEXT HIGHEST-PAID MANAGER MADE. I find this hilarious because I think paying him anything at all would constitute overpaying, because he puts his team at a competitive disadvantage through his bad managing. He literally subtracts expected wins from the team he manages and gets paid CEO-type money to do it. He's the freakin' Kenneth Lay of baseball. So why haven't the Yankees pulled an Enron and completely tanked during his tenure, then? Because relatively speaking, there is very little baseball managers can do to affect their team's performance. You could literally put a monkey in a Yankees uniform and staple-gun a depth chart to his back and he would be just as effective as Joe Torre. Hell, the monkey might even beat him in the long-run. If you actually wanted to help your team, though, you could write a computer program that would undoubtedly out-tactician Torre, and probably any other manager.
3) He is a miserable fat sloth. Am I the only person who noticed how he would constantly be fighting to stay awake during games? They'd cut to the bench, and there he'd be, a little pile of fat, barely moving and his eyes drooping down.
4) He most certainly doesn't understand what expected value is. If he did, he'd realize that the contract the Yankees offered him was not much of a pay cut. If you consider the Yankees a shoo-in to the make the playoffs and then a coinflip to win each playoff series, the EV of his base salary plus incentives is [5+(1)(1)+(.5)(1)+(.25)(1)] = $6.75 million. Oh no, a 10% pay cut! Now instead of having ten Ferraris to sit his fat ass in, he can only get nine! A 10% pay cut after failing to bring home a World Series title for seven years with what is consistently the best team in baseball is obviously acceptable.
God I hate Dane Cook.
This October is pure lunacy. I mean, we've got a friggin' Rockies-Red Sox World Series, a matchup that would have garnered nothing more than a, "What are you, retarded?" look were it forecasted just a few years ago, Joe Torre figuratively flipping the Yankees the bird and going out like a real a-hole, Dane Cook screaming at me from rapidly changing camera angles when I'm just trying to relax and watch some baseball, and the seventh damn year in a row the Yankees have failed to win a World Series title despite being by far the best team in baseball over that stretch.
I have to say, the media coverage of the Joe Torre debacle has been the most infuriating element of this hurricane of insanity. It's as if every beat writer has completely lost their mind. Maybe they're just bewitched. Who knows? Maybe Joe Torre is a witch. Regardless of whether he's a witch or not, here are a few things I know about Joe Torre:
1) He is a horrible baseball tactician. Notice I've initially stopped short of saying the word "manager", because whenever anyone dares to call him a bad manager, they are subjected to an avalanche of absurd claims along the lines of, "BUT HE MANAGES THE PERSONALITIES OF HIS PLAYERS SO WELL!!!!!11111". Let's refute this statement with two important points:
- It's irrelevant. I am sick and tired of the idea that a professional player's performance is somehow tied to how their personality is being "managed". Do you really think A-Rod is going up the plate thinking, "Well, normally I wouldn't even try here, but since Joe Torre has managed my personality so well, I'm just going to go ahead and hit a 450-foot home run." No. His thought process is more likely, "Okay, this guy threw me first-pitch fastballs the last two at-bats, so he's probably coming with the hook to start me off here. I'll lay off it and hopefully be sitting at 1-0. Then I'll hit a 450-foot home run which will further contribute to the hundreds of millions of dollars I'll be guaranteed this offseason. Man I rule."
- It's UNTRUE. Oh, so Joe Torre is skilled at managing the personalities of big-time mercenary-like players stuffed into one New York clubhouse, you say? Wow, that's interesting. Maybe you'd like to explain why Randy Johnson hated playing for this team, Carl Pavano picked up his check and checked out, and Gary Sheffield is off spewing crap about how the Yankees are racist. Torre was supposed to be able to handle these maniacs that the Yankees were paying tens of millions of dollars to every year, and he failed miserably.
2) He is outrageously overpaid. Consider that this season, Joe was paid $7.5 million, MORE THAN TWICE WHAT THE NEXT HIGHEST-PAID MANAGER MADE. I find this hilarious because I think paying him anything at all would constitute overpaying, because he puts his team at a competitive disadvantage through his bad managing. He literally subtracts expected wins from the team he manages and gets paid CEO-type money to do it. He's the freakin' Kenneth Lay of baseball. So why haven't the Yankees pulled an Enron and completely tanked during his tenure, then? Because relatively speaking, there is very little baseball managers can do to affect their team's performance. You could literally put a monkey in a Yankees uniform and staple-gun a depth chart to his back and he would be just as effective as Joe Torre. Hell, the monkey might even beat him in the long-run. If you actually wanted to help your team, though, you could write a computer program that would undoubtedly out-tactician Torre, and probably any other manager.
3) He is a miserable fat sloth. Am I the only person who noticed how he would constantly be fighting to stay awake during games? They'd cut to the bench, and there he'd be, a little pile of fat, barely moving and his eyes drooping down.
4) He most certainly doesn't understand what expected value is. If he did, he'd realize that the contract the Yankees offered him was not much of a pay cut. If you consider the Yankees a shoo-in to the make the playoffs and then a coinflip to win each playoff series, the EV of his base salary plus incentives is [5+(1)(1)+(.5)(1)+(.25)(1)] = $6.75 million. Oh no, a 10% pay cut! Now instead of having ten Ferraris to sit his fat ass in, he can only get nine! A 10% pay cut after failing to bring home a World Series title for seven years with what is consistently the best team in baseball is obviously acceptable.
God I hate Dane Cook.
August 23, 2007
Eye of the storm
The Yankees just finished the first seven games of a tough 14 game stretch against the Tigers, Angels, and Red Sox. They took three out of four from the Tigers but lost the next two games against the Angels, including one embarassing 18-9 loss, but avoided the sweep with yesterday's 8-2 victory behind Andy Pettitte's stellar outing. Today they have an off-day before another four game set against the Tigers, this time in Detroit, and then a three game series against the Sox at home.
The Yankee offense has been solid. In the past seven games, they faced the likes of Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Kelvim Escobar, and John Lackey, and still managed to average nearly seven runs per game, which is outstanding. The hitters are stepping up and showing that they can handle tough pitching, easing some of my concerns that I voiced when I brought up the nominal nature of the Yankees' team OPS a couple weeks ago.
No, hitting certainly hasn't been the concern as of late. Rather, it's been consistent starting pitching. Here's a look at each Yankee starter's numbers so far this month and my take on them:
Andy Pettitte: 5 G, 35.0 IP, 2.06 ERA
Lately, Pettitte has been establishing himself as the team ace and, given his reputation as a big-game pitcher, he'll probably be the team's number one starter in the division series should they make the postseason.
Chien-Ming Wang: 4 G, 21.2 IP, 7.06 ERA
Wang has hit his first rough patch of the season. I'm fairly confident that he's just slumping a bit, but there is a budding concern that his eternal finger blister/cracked fingernail injury is finally catching up with him.
Roger Clemens: 3 G, 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA
Clemens has been pitching decently as of late, but I'm worried about his durability. He's usually yanked before he gets to 100 pitches, and when he isn't relieved before the 100 mark, it seems to negatively impact his next start. He went over 100 during the first two starts of the season, which he followed up with a 4.1 inning loss in Colorado. He didn't reach 100 pitches in a game again until July 28th, when he threw 113 against the Orioles. His next outing was a disaster, as he lasted only 1.2 innings and gave up eight runs against the White Sox. Shortly thereafter, he decided not to appeal the five-game suspension handed to him for throwing at the Blue Jays' Alex Rios. Appealing the suspension would have allowed him to make his next scheduled start and push back his following start by only one game, but instead he was effectively skipped in the rotation and given ten days of rest. The fact that Clemens elected to do this makes me worry about his ability to go deep into games on a consistent basis. The man is 45, after all.
Phil Hughes: 4 G, 22.0 IP, 5.73 ERA
A lot of fans are worried about Phil Franchise because he hasn't been striking out every batter he faces like that wonderboy Joba Chamberlain, but I'm really not too concerned about him. Hughes hasn't been great since coming off the DL, but he's still learning. In all probability, he'll get better as the season nears its end. I'm much more worried about Wang and Clemens than I am about Hughes at this point, because they have attrition possiblities whereas Hughes has yet to reach his ceiling.
Mike Mussina: 4 G, 20.1 IP, 7.52 ERA
Man, just when Moose was starting to look better, he tanks in August. While I'm not going to join the angry mob of fans that believe he would be more valuable to the Yankees if Gene Monahan harvested his organs and sold them on the black market, he's clearly been a disappointment this season. It's funny when people say that Mussina should be left off the post-season rotation if he continues to pitch this poorly. Obviously, they're correct in stating that he would be the Yankees' worst starter if he continues to perform like this, but in all likelihood the Yankees won't make the playoffs unless he pitches well. With the Yankees five games behind the Red Sox in the AL East and three games back in the loss column from the red-hot Mariners in the Wildcard standings, they're going to need Moose to pitch well. I'm inclined to believe that he's capable of doing so. Granted, his drop in velocity this year is concerning, but he's never been a power pitcher. He relies on his control and good breaking ball to get hitters out.
Peter Abraham: 21 G, 483 bags of potato chips eaten, countless little children scared
The Yankee offense has been solid. In the past seven games, they faced the likes of Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Kelvim Escobar, and John Lackey, and still managed to average nearly seven runs per game, which is outstanding. The hitters are stepping up and showing that they can handle tough pitching, easing some of my concerns that I voiced when I brought up the nominal nature of the Yankees' team OPS a couple weeks ago.
No, hitting certainly hasn't been the concern as of late. Rather, it's been consistent starting pitching. Here's a look at each Yankee starter's numbers so far this month and my take on them:
Andy Pettitte: 5 G, 35.0 IP, 2.06 ERA
Lately, Pettitte has been establishing himself as the team ace and, given his reputation as a big-game pitcher, he'll probably be the team's number one starter in the division series should they make the postseason.
Chien-Ming Wang: 4 G, 21.2 IP, 7.06 ERA
Wang has hit his first rough patch of the season. I'm fairly confident that he's just slumping a bit, but there is a budding concern that his eternal finger blister/cracked fingernail injury is finally catching up with him.
Roger Clemens: 3 G, 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA
Clemens has been pitching decently as of late, but I'm worried about his durability. He's usually yanked before he gets to 100 pitches, and when he isn't relieved before the 100 mark, it seems to negatively impact his next start. He went over 100 during the first two starts of the season, which he followed up with a 4.1 inning loss in Colorado. He didn't reach 100 pitches in a game again until July 28th, when he threw 113 against the Orioles. His next outing was a disaster, as he lasted only 1.2 innings and gave up eight runs against the White Sox. Shortly thereafter, he decided not to appeal the five-game suspension handed to him for throwing at the Blue Jays' Alex Rios. Appealing the suspension would have allowed him to make his next scheduled start and push back his following start by only one game, but instead he was effectively skipped in the rotation and given ten days of rest. The fact that Clemens elected to do this makes me worry about his ability to go deep into games on a consistent basis. The man is 45, after all.
Phil Hughes: 4 G, 22.0 IP, 5.73 ERA
A lot of fans are worried about Phil Franchise because he hasn't been striking out every batter he faces like that wonderboy Joba Chamberlain, but I'm really not too concerned about him. Hughes hasn't been great since coming off the DL, but he's still learning. In all probability, he'll get better as the season nears its end. I'm much more worried about Wang and Clemens than I am about Hughes at this point, because they have attrition possiblities whereas Hughes has yet to reach his ceiling.
Mike Mussina: 4 G, 20.1 IP, 7.52 ERA
Man, just when Moose was starting to look better, he tanks in August. While I'm not going to join the angry mob of fans that believe he would be more valuable to the Yankees if Gene Monahan harvested his organs and sold them on the black market, he's clearly been a disappointment this season. It's funny when people say that Mussina should be left off the post-season rotation if he continues to pitch this poorly. Obviously, they're correct in stating that he would be the Yankees' worst starter if he continues to perform like this, but in all likelihood the Yankees won't make the playoffs unless he pitches well. With the Yankees five games behind the Red Sox in the AL East and three games back in the loss column from the red-hot Mariners in the Wildcard standings, they're going to need Moose to pitch well. I'm inclined to believe that he's capable of doing so. Granted, his drop in velocity this year is concerning, but he's never been a power pitcher. He relies on his control and good breaking ball to get hitters out.
Peter Abraham: 21 G, 483 bags of potato chips eaten, countless little children scared
August 14, 2007
Did you know that A-Rod, not Hitler, was responsible for the Holocaust?
I get a kick out of the fact that writers for two popular Yankee blogs that I follow would even suggest that Alex Rodriguez should be blamed for the Yankees' lopsided loss tonight because of something that happened 75 days ago. Here's some background information:
There are several obvious things to point out in order to negate this batshit-insane needless A-Rod bashing, but let's start off with a more subtle point -- one that took some rigorous investigative journalism on my part. If you review frame-by-frame footage of the game from last week, you'll actually notice that it was Roger Clemens who threw at Rios, not Alex Rodriguez! I know, I know, I just run a small-time blog and you probably think I'm a "conspiracy theorist" and whatnot, but seriously, check it out for yourself!
Seriously, how can Alex Rodriguez be blamed for something that Roger Clemens chose to do? It's not as if it was purely up to him to retaliate, something that Krazy Kyle Farnsworth or the dispensable Jim Brower (who came in after Clemens) were assuredly perfectly capable of, and as a 24-year veteran, he understood the implications of intentionally throwing at an opposing batter after warnings were issued. Which brings me to my next point: Roger Clemens could have appealed the suspension in order to avoid missing a start. This happens all the time. When starting pitchers get suspended, they delay the process in order to miss as few turns in the rotation as possible. Why Clemens chose not to do so is bizarre at best, and infuriating at worst. Quite frankly, with regard to this "Ha!" butterfly-effect fiasco, any sort of fan frustration with a Yankee player should be directed towards the Rocket, not A-Rod.
In any case, the most ridiculous mainstream oversight, in my opinion, is that the "Ha!" helped the Yankees at a time when they needed it most. At 21-29, they were 14.5 games behind Boston. A-Rod's antics allowed the team to score four important insurance runs in the ninth inning, en route to a 10-5 victory. MLB.com reported that when asked what he was trying to accomplish with the play, he responded, "To win a game. We're desperate. We haven't won a game in a little bit now, so we won the game." A-Rod was simply trying to help the team any way he could (in case his trillion home runs weren't quite good enough) and fans should respect him for doing so.
Also, can somebody please explain why a baserunner yelling at a fielder is generally considered a gross breach of baseball "etiquette"? This isn't golf. Most professional athletes have to deal with loud crowd noises and other distractions all the time. Hell, in basketball, almost everyone yells at an opponent going in for a wide-open layup, which is certainly that sport's equivalent to fielding a routine pop-up. A-Rod didn't even go as far as to yell "I got it!", which would have been much more disruptive to Howie Clark considering the relative proximity of Toronto shortstop John McDonald.
On a side note, Joe Torre is an idiot for DH-ing anyone other than Giambi at this point. It's a crime that a guy with a .413 career OBP isn't an everyday player. He is a terrible manager and I curse the Lord for taking Phil Rirruto instead of him. Those are z's.
- On May 30th, when the Yankees stood at a horrendous 21-29, they led the Blue Jays 6-5 in the top of the ninth inning with two outs. Jorge Posada hit a pop-up to the left side of the infield, and baserunner Alex Rodriguez shouted "Ha!" at third-baseman Howie Clark at the last second, apparently causing him to lose focus and botch the play.
- The Blue Jays descended into a state of fiery inexorable rage, refusing to move on even after more than two months had passed, throwing at A-Rod, bad-mouthing him in the press, and burning effigies of him whenever the opportunity arose.
- A week ago, A-Rod was plunked by Blue Jays pitcher Josh Towers. Later in the game, Roger Clemens decided to respond by throwing at Alex Rios. He was ejected, and because of retarded MLB anti-retaliation rules, he was suspended for five games.
- Tonight would have been Clemens's spot in the rotation, and he was replaced by Jeff Karstens, who got roughed up. The Yankees lost 12-0.
There are several obvious things to point out in order to negate this batshit-insane needless A-Rod bashing, but let's start off with a more subtle point -- one that took some rigorous investigative journalism on my part. If you review frame-by-frame footage of the game from last week, you'll actually notice that it was Roger Clemens who threw at Rios, not Alex Rodriguez! I know, I know, I just run a small-time blog and you probably think I'm a "conspiracy theorist" and whatnot, but seriously, check it out for yourself!
Seriously, how can Alex Rodriguez be blamed for something that Roger Clemens chose to do? It's not as if it was purely up to him to retaliate, something that Krazy Kyle Farnsworth or the dispensable Jim Brower (who came in after Clemens) were assuredly perfectly capable of, and as a 24-year veteran, he understood the implications of intentionally throwing at an opposing batter after warnings were issued. Which brings me to my next point: Roger Clemens could have appealed the suspension in order to avoid missing a start. This happens all the time. When starting pitchers get suspended, they delay the process in order to miss as few turns in the rotation as possible. Why Clemens chose not to do so is bizarre at best, and infuriating at worst. Quite frankly, with regard to this "Ha!" butterfly-effect fiasco, any sort of fan frustration with a Yankee player should be directed towards the Rocket, not A-Rod.
In any case, the most ridiculous mainstream oversight, in my opinion, is that the "Ha!" helped the Yankees at a time when they needed it most. At 21-29, they were 14.5 games behind Boston. A-Rod's antics allowed the team to score four important insurance runs in the ninth inning, en route to a 10-5 victory. MLB.com reported that when asked what he was trying to accomplish with the play, he responded, "To win a game. We're desperate. We haven't won a game in a little bit now, so we won the game." A-Rod was simply trying to help the team any way he could (in case his trillion home runs weren't quite good enough) and fans should respect him for doing so.
Also, can somebody please explain why a baserunner yelling at a fielder is generally considered a gross breach of baseball "etiquette"? This isn't golf. Most professional athletes have to deal with loud crowd noises and other distractions all the time. Hell, in basketball, almost everyone yells at an opponent going in for a wide-open layup, which is certainly that sport's equivalent to fielding a routine pop-up. A-Rod didn't even go as far as to yell "I got it!", which would have been much more disruptive to Howie Clark considering the relative proximity of Toronto shortstop John McDonald.
On a side note, Joe Torre is an idiot for DH-ing anyone other than Giambi at this point. It's a crime that a guy with a .413 career OBP isn't an everyday player. He is a terrible manager and I curse the Lord for taking Phil Rirruto instead of him. Those are z's.
August 6, 2007
I INVENTED THE PIANO-KEY NECKTIE, I INVENTED IT
Last night I was mulling over the Yankees' recent surge and whether or not I should adjust my 90-win forecast. The Bombers have been scoring runs at an insane rate lately, but mostly against teams that have pitched poorly all season, such as the Devil Rays, Royals, and White Sox. I began to wonder if there was any decent way of quantitatively expressing a team's tendency to outperform against poor pitching and underperform against good pitching relative to other teams. So I made up a random statistic and called it On-Base Plus Slugging Nominality (OPSN), defining it as the percent difference between the slope of the linear regression of a batting entity's OPS versus league pitching entity performances and the ratio of a batting entity's OPS over the average league OPS. It's a mouthful, but I'm pretty sure it makes some sort of sense. The result should be that a positive OPSN means that the batting entity performs disproportionately better against below-average pitching entities and whose OPS is therefore nominal in nature, and vice versa. Anyway, in this case the batting entity is the Yankees, the pitching entities are broken into teams (in the American League), and the time-frame is the 2007 season to date. Here's a graph that sort of breaks it down:
So the Yankees' OPSN versus AL pitching staffs is (2.1129-1.1029)/1.1029 = .916, which is probably a significant figure despite the relatively small sample sizes of around eight games per opponent faced. In other words, this Yankee team is likely to beat down on bad teams and get shut down by good pitchers. Why this might be the case is a matter of speculation, but I would guess that it probably has to do with things like:
- Bobby Abreu has lost a bit of bat speed and can be overpowered.
- Robinson Cano chases pitches that break out of the strike zone.
- Alex Rodriguez is something of a guess-hitter.
- Hideki Matsui has trouble with above-average two-seam fastballs.
- Melky Cabrera is young.
- Andy Phillips can struggle against high-level offspeed, breaking stuff.
Of course, my methods are pretty unscientific here and my conclusions could be off. In all likelihood, the best way of doing this analysis would be to calculate the OPSN of each individual Yankee hitter over the last several years (or however long they've been in the majors) against individual pitchers, adjusting for seasonal or ballpark factors, and doing some fancy statistical work to account for varying sample sizes. But I'm too lazy. Bottom line is, I'm not going to go with the new market consensus that the Yankees will win 95 games this year, but I'll go ahead and adjust to 91 wins, maintaining a 3.5 win standard deviation.
Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees second-biggest pitching prospect next to Phil Hughes (though I guess he's not just a prospect anymore), has been called up to work out of the bullpen. While I love that the Yankees are flexing their young-pitching muscle, I have mixed feelings about this move. Joba has been rushed, and he's only had three appearances in the minors as a reliever before being called up to the bigs to be a seventh-inning guy. He could easily overpitch on adrenaline and hurt himself. Word seems to have it that his fastball is sitting at 98 in relief, as opposed to 94 in starts, and the truth is that most pitchers simply can't put that kind of strain on their arms for more than a few seasons. Just ask Eric Gagne and Joel Zumaya (Guitar Hero my ass). Or, invent a time machine and ask Jonathan Papelbon in a couple years after this happens:
So the Yankees' OPSN versus AL pitching staffs is (2.1129-1.1029)/1.1029 = .916, which is probably a significant figure despite the relatively small sample sizes of around eight games per opponent faced. In other words, this Yankee team is likely to beat down on bad teams and get shut down by good pitchers. Why this might be the case is a matter of speculation, but I would guess that it probably has to do with things like:
- Bobby Abreu has lost a bit of bat speed and can be overpowered.
- Robinson Cano chases pitches that break out of the strike zone.
- Alex Rodriguez is something of a guess-hitter.
- Hideki Matsui has trouble with above-average two-seam fastballs.
- Melky Cabrera is young.
- Andy Phillips can struggle against high-level offspeed, breaking stuff.
Of course, my methods are pretty unscientific here and my conclusions could be off. In all likelihood, the best way of doing this analysis would be to calculate the OPSN of each individual Yankee hitter over the last several years (or however long they've been in the majors) against individual pitchers, adjusting for seasonal or ballpark factors, and doing some fancy statistical work to account for varying sample sizes. But I'm too lazy. Bottom line is, I'm not going to go with the new market consensus that the Yankees will win 95 games this year, but I'll go ahead and adjust to 91 wins, maintaining a 3.5 win standard deviation.
Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees second-biggest pitching prospect next to Phil Hughes (though I guess he's not just a prospect anymore), has been called up to work out of the bullpen. While I love that the Yankees are flexing their young-pitching muscle, I have mixed feelings about this move. Joba has been rushed, and he's only had three appearances in the minors as a reliever before being called up to the bigs to be a seventh-inning guy. He could easily overpitch on adrenaline and hurt himself. Word seems to have it that his fastball is sitting at 98 in relief, as opposed to 94 in starts, and the truth is that most pitchers simply can't put that kind of strain on their arms for more than a few seasons. Just ask Eric Gagne and Joel Zumaya (Guitar Hero my ass). Or, invent a time machine and ask Jonathan Papelbon in a couple years after this happens:
August 3, 2007
I'm secretly rooting against Jorge Posada
Jorge Posada is having a mind-blowing kind of season. He entered 2007 as a 35-year-old who had caught 1,222 games in his major league career, and it was looking like his best years were behind him. Those best years were impressive -- from 2000-2003, he won four Silver Slugger awards and finished third in the 2003 AL MVP balloting. He could practically be marked down for having an OPS of around .850 each season, which is tremendous production from a catcher. However, the start of his decline seemed inevitable in what would be his 17th season in professional baseball (including the minors). That's 17 hot summers of squatting behind a plate wearing heavy catcher's equipment and getting pounded by foul tips and pitches in the dirt. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA card forecasted that Posada would hit .259/.365/.443 in 2007 and would continue to decline until his predicted retirement after the 2010 season. In addition to his expected drop in all batting metrics, the BP model also showed a 24% "attrition rate", meaning the chance of a player being injured or benched for a significant portion of the season.
Taking those factors into consideration, I agreed with Brian Cashman's decision to wait until the end of 2007 to negotiate a contract with Posada, rather than offer him an extension during the offseason.
Um, oops.
So far in 2007, Posada is hitting .343/.417/.553, all of which would be career-highs. The .343 BA is especially outrageous considering his prior best was a .287 mark in 2000. This is all great, and he's been incredibly valuable to the team this year, but he has consistently asserted that he is looking forward to free agency and will ceratinly test the market. Basically, what this says is that the Yankees will have to throw something like $75 million over five years at a 36-year-old catcher come this winter. He might even get more considering how irreplacable he is and how much he is adored by Yankee fans (Hip hip, Jorge! Hip-hip, Jorge!!! Hip-hip, OH GOD YOU TOOK ALL OF OUR MONEY).
So, getting back to the title of this entry, yes, I do root against Jorge Posada, but only when the Yankees are either way behind or way ahead. Don't take it personally, Jorgie. I don't really want you to fail, I just want you to rapidly regress to the mean in your contract year, goddammit.
Taking those factors into consideration, I agreed with Brian Cashman's decision to wait until the end of 2007 to negotiate a contract with Posada, rather than offer him an extension during the offseason.
Um, oops.
So far in 2007, Posada is hitting .343/.417/.553, all of which would be career-highs. The .343 BA is especially outrageous considering his prior best was a .287 mark in 2000. This is all great, and he's been incredibly valuable to the team this year, but he has consistently asserted that he is looking forward to free agency and will ceratinly test the market. Basically, what this says is that the Yankees will have to throw something like $75 million over five years at a 36-year-old catcher come this winter. He might even get more considering how irreplacable he is and how much he is adored by Yankee fans (Hip hip, Jorge! Hip-hip, Jorge!!! Hip-hip, OH GOD YOU TOOK ALL OF OUR MONEY).
So, getting back to the title of this entry, yes, I do root against Jorge Posada, but only when the Yankees are either way behind or way ahead. Don't take it personally, Jorgie. I don't really want you to fail, I just want you to rapidly regress to the mean in your contract year, goddammit.
July 28, 2007
Market correction
Equities were down Thursday and Friday, and so were the Yankees, as they dropped two straight (not including the completion of the suspended game) against the Royals and the Orioles. Market activity was primarily driven by the overvaluation of performances against subprime teams like the Devil Rays, and credit concerns regarding Kei Igawa's huge contract despite his apparent inability to do anything but throw 89-mph thigh-high fastballs right down the middle of the plate.
Alex Rodriguez is sitting on 499 home runs on the same day that Barry Bonds is one short of tying Hank Aaron's 755. There has been a lot of discussion about A-Rod and Bonds approaching these significant power milestones simultaneously, as most everyone outside of San Francisco views Bonds as a dirty cheater and A-Rod as a purer player. My position on Bonds has been and always will be that the guy was an extraordinarily good hitter before he started taking steroids, and while he may not "deserve" the all-time record, it's really Major League Baseball's fault for not instituting an illegal substance-testing policy when every other major sport in America had one. Ever since the MLB started testing players, Bonds has not been suspended, so really, what can you do?
Also, I don't take it for granted, as many sportswriters do, that A-Rod will hit 800 home runs in his career and break Bonds's record. Rodriguez turned 32 yesterday, inching closer to that mid-thirties mark where players inevitably begin to decline. A-Rod will have to remain healthy and really rake over the next few seasons in order to have a shot at the record.
Roger Clemens takes the mound for the Yankees today, and he'll be followed by Rambo Wang on Sunday to complete the three-game series against the O's. The Yanks will probably win both of these games. I'll maintain my initial post-All-Star forecast for the Yankees to win 90 games this season, but I'll lower the standard deviation to 3.5 games and reitirate that they probably will not make the playoffs.
Alex Rodriguez is sitting on 499 home runs on the same day that Barry Bonds is one short of tying Hank Aaron's 755. There has been a lot of discussion about A-Rod and Bonds approaching these significant power milestones simultaneously, as most everyone outside of San Francisco views Bonds as a dirty cheater and A-Rod as a purer player. My position on Bonds has been and always will be that the guy was an extraordinarily good hitter before he started taking steroids, and while he may not "deserve" the all-time record, it's really Major League Baseball's fault for not instituting an illegal substance-testing policy when every other major sport in America had one. Ever since the MLB started testing players, Bonds has not been suspended, so really, what can you do?
Also, I don't take it for granted, as many sportswriters do, that A-Rod will hit 800 home runs in his career and break Bonds's record. Rodriguez turned 32 yesterday, inching closer to that mid-thirties mark where players inevitably begin to decline. A-Rod will have to remain healthy and really rake over the next few seasons in order to have a shot at the record.
Roger Clemens takes the mound for the Yankees today, and he'll be followed by Rambo Wang on Sunday to complete the three-game series against the O's. The Yanks will probably win both of these games. I'll maintain my initial post-All-Star forecast for the Yankees to win 90 games this season, but I'll lower the standard deviation to 3.5 games and reitirate that they probably will not make the playoffs.
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